Monday, February 4, 2008
Stage Being Set For Mid-term Election And The Stock Market
Connecticuts 18 year Senator Joes Lieberman has failed to win his own partys primary for reelection. The figures are almost final, and country club liberal Ned Lamont has bested the Senator by 52% to 48%. The actual vote so far is 142,000 votes to 136,000 votes. How did Lamont get it done, and what does it mean for the country in the upcoming November election, and the financial markets?
Lieberman self-imploded by being out of touch with his own base. What makes the result more astounding is that he is one of only three sitting United States Senators to be denied his partys nomination over the last 25 years. He was his partys nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States only six years ago. This is a man who ran for the Presidency itself only two years ago. In his mind when he ran for the Presidency he had to believe he was going to win that nomination, or he would not even have tried. How does a man like this who has spent his whole life in politics allow himself to be blown away by a novice who has been out of touch with everyday living for his entire life?
It is one thing to support several of President Bushs policies. It is another to appear to be cozy, and even joined at the hip with a sitting President who has 58% disapproval rating among the American people. The first thing we must realize is that this primary was never about Ned Lamont. Mr. Lamont comes across as a physically attractive, affable individual. He is a trust fund descendent who traces his roots to his great grandfather Thomas William Lamont, who was a partner of JP Morgan and Company, when Mr. Morgan was the single most powerful financial banker in the entire world. Ned Lamont was educated at Americas finest private schools including Harvard and Yale where there are buildings named after members of his family. He lives in Greenwich, CT., a wealthy, insulated community if there ever was one.
It was fascinating, to see Ned Lamont declare victory with three African Americans behind standing immediately behind him, two of whom are household names, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, and Reverend Al Sharpton. What made it all the more interesting is that Greenwich has to have the smallest percentage of African Americans among its population set than any town of its size in America. Politics is indeed imitating art.
How did Lamont get it done? First, wrong question, he didnt get it done. This campaign is the product of absolutely brilliant Internet bloggers with a liberal bias who motivated the grass roots to get out there and defeat Lieberman. Lamont could have been a one-eyed, peg legged pirate, and the liberals would have played it the same way. These bloggers mobilized outsiders including young people, and others to come into quiet Connecticut, and unseat the conservative Democratic sitting Senator, Mr. Lieberman. Thousands of independent voters were persuaded to switch from independent to Democratic to vote in this primary. Thousands more were registered for the first time.
It was a brilliant, well orchestrated, and in the end EFFECTIVE way to go. It demonstrates the joining of the Internet, and the power of the people. It is the beginning of the next wave in politics. It is as decisive, and perhaps more decisive than the advent of television, and the transformation of the Presidency when President John Kennedy became the first candidate to use that medium effectively. The day of Joe Liebermans defeat is the turning point of a new American politics based on Internet power.
I view this as a positive use of power. Mr. Lamont is irrelevant to this event. What is relevant is that giant sums of money will be raised by the Internet on behalf of candidates. I fervently hope that this will dwarf the money that is given by lobbyists who essentially have controlled this country for years. These lobbyists act not in the interests of the people, but in the interests, of certain isolated, wealthy, powerful interest groups. These groups want what they want with no thought whatsoever towards the needs of mainstream America.
Both of our political parties are in the grips of these private interests. The interests are different for each party but equally powerful. Does any Conservative Republican believe in his heart of hearts that the present Congress represents the philosophy of Conservative Republicanism? Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative would turn over in his grave if he saw what the current Congress has passed in the way of legislation, and the unprecedented amount of debt that has been piled onto our childrens futures. At the same time, the liberals do not present a viable, workable alternative, which is why they lost power during the 1994 Congressional election.
What does this mean for the financial markets in the United States? I suspect at the very least, the Democrats will pick up seats in both houses of Congress this coming November. The out of power party traditionally picks up anyway. With the tailwind of Iraq at the Democrats back, if they had any cohesive actionable plan, they would take both houses of Congress. I have yet to see such a plan, and the smart money says it is more likely that they will take one house, since the Democrats are still trying to figure out what they believe.
It is more likely they take the House of Representatives, and this then gives the NEW Democratic Chairmen of different House committees the POWER of Subpoena. The Democrats will exercise that power in an attempt to emasculate the sitting President, and they will effectively do just that. At the very least, this means GRIDLOCK, at the extreme, a move towards impeachment, probably on groups of violating constitutional law. They will relate it to privacy, and wiretapping through the National Security Agency. As far as the financial markets are concerned, they would LOVE gridlock to return.
A party that gives tens of billions of unnecessary dollars to insurance companies to act as an intermediary in a national drug program for the elderly does not deserve control of three branches of government. A party that has so seriously mismanaged the Iraq situation does not deserve control of three branches of government. A party that creates tax cuts is good in my opinion, but not a party that borrows hundreds of billions of dollars from foreigners. It then gives the cash to the rich class in America as tax cuts, and leaves the debt with your children. That party doesnt deserve to control three branches of government. The financial markets will pick up on this, and react positively to the return of gridlock.
Its going to be fascinating to see what poor Joe Lieberman has started, and by the way, wouldnt it be surprising to see the following scenario. The Connecticut Republican nominee for Senator gives up the nomination. The Republicans nominate Joe Lieberman in his place, while he runs on the Independent line also. In the end Poor Joe, gets reelected after all in November.
Goodbye and good luck
Richard Stoyeck
http://www.stocksatbottom.com
Richard Stoyecks background includes being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.comChild Education Support
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Lieberman self-imploded by being out of touch with his own base. What makes the result more astounding is that he is one of only three sitting United States Senators to be denied his partys nomination over the last 25 years. He was his partys nominee for the Vice Presidency of the United States only six years ago. This is a man who ran for the Presidency itself only two years ago. In his mind when he ran for the Presidency he had to believe he was going to win that nomination, or he would not even have tried. How does a man like this who has spent his whole life in politics allow himself to be blown away by a novice who has been out of touch with everyday living for his entire life?
It is one thing to support several of President Bushs policies. It is another to appear to be cozy, and even joined at the hip with a sitting President who has 58% disapproval rating among the American people. The first thing we must realize is that this primary was never about Ned Lamont. Mr. Lamont comes across as a physically attractive, affable individual. He is a trust fund descendent who traces his roots to his great grandfather Thomas William Lamont, who was a partner of JP Morgan and Company, when Mr. Morgan was the single most powerful financial banker in the entire world. Ned Lamont was educated at Americas finest private schools including Harvard and Yale where there are buildings named after members of his family. He lives in Greenwich, CT., a wealthy, insulated community if there ever was one.
It was fascinating, to see Ned Lamont declare victory with three African Americans behind standing immediately behind him, two of whom are household names, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, and Reverend Al Sharpton. What made it all the more interesting is that Greenwich has to have the smallest percentage of African Americans among its population set than any town of its size in America. Politics is indeed imitating art.
How did Lamont get it done? First, wrong question, he didnt get it done. This campaign is the product of absolutely brilliant Internet bloggers with a liberal bias who motivated the grass roots to get out there and defeat Lieberman. Lamont could have been a one-eyed, peg legged pirate, and the liberals would have played it the same way. These bloggers mobilized outsiders including young people, and others to come into quiet Connecticut, and unseat the conservative Democratic sitting Senator, Mr. Lieberman. Thousands of independent voters were persuaded to switch from independent to Democratic to vote in this primary. Thousands more were registered for the first time.
It was a brilliant, well orchestrated, and in the end EFFECTIVE way to go. It demonstrates the joining of the Internet, and the power of the people. It is the beginning of the next wave in politics. It is as decisive, and perhaps more decisive than the advent of television, and the transformation of the Presidency when President John Kennedy became the first candidate to use that medium effectively. The day of Joe Liebermans defeat is the turning point of a new American politics based on Internet power.
I view this as a positive use of power. Mr. Lamont is irrelevant to this event. What is relevant is that giant sums of money will be raised by the Internet on behalf of candidates. I fervently hope that this will dwarf the money that is given by lobbyists who essentially have controlled this country for years. These lobbyists act not in the interests of the people, but in the interests, of certain isolated, wealthy, powerful interest groups. These groups want what they want with no thought whatsoever towards the needs of mainstream America.
Both of our political parties are in the grips of these private interests. The interests are different for each party but equally powerful. Does any Conservative Republican believe in his heart of hearts that the present Congress represents the philosophy of Conservative Republicanism? Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative would turn over in his grave if he saw what the current Congress has passed in the way of legislation, and the unprecedented amount of debt that has been piled onto our childrens futures. At the same time, the liberals do not present a viable, workable alternative, which is why they lost power during the 1994 Congressional election.
What does this mean for the financial markets in the United States? I suspect at the very least, the Democrats will pick up seats in both houses of Congress this coming November. The out of power party traditionally picks up anyway. With the tailwind of Iraq at the Democrats back, if they had any cohesive actionable plan, they would take both houses of Congress. I have yet to see such a plan, and the smart money says it is more likely that they will take one house, since the Democrats are still trying to figure out what they believe.
It is more likely they take the House of Representatives, and this then gives the NEW Democratic Chairmen of different House committees the POWER of Subpoena. The Democrats will exercise that power in an attempt to emasculate the sitting President, and they will effectively do just that. At the very least, this means GRIDLOCK, at the extreme, a move towards impeachment, probably on groups of violating constitutional law. They will relate it to privacy, and wiretapping through the National Security Agency. As far as the financial markets are concerned, they would LOVE gridlock to return.
A party that gives tens of billions of unnecessary dollars to insurance companies to act as an intermediary in a national drug program for the elderly does not deserve control of three branches of government. A party that has so seriously mismanaged the Iraq situation does not deserve control of three branches of government. A party that creates tax cuts is good in my opinion, but not a party that borrows hundreds of billions of dollars from foreigners. It then gives the cash to the rich class in America as tax cuts, and leaves the debt with your children. That party doesnt deserve to control three branches of government. The financial markets will pick up on this, and react positively to the return of gridlock.
Its going to be fascinating to see what poor Joe Lieberman has started, and by the way, wouldnt it be surprising to see the following scenario. The Connecticut Republican nominee for Senator gives up the nomination. The Republicans nominate Joe Lieberman in his place, while he runs on the Independent line also. In the end Poor Joe, gets reelected after all in November.
Goodbye and good luck
Richard Stoyeck
http://www.stocksatbottom.com
Richard Stoyecks background includes being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.comChild Education Support
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# posted by lorenzolow2923 @ 6:32 PM 
